Publications
Peer-reviewed publications from team members at Temblor.
Recent publications
Toda, S., and R.S. Stein (2023), The role of stress changes in rupture nucleation and inhibition
in the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, sequence, and a one-year earthquake forecast,
submitted to Seismol. Res. Letts.
Toda, S., Stein, R. S., Özbakir, A. D., Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Sevilgen, V., Lotto, G., and Sevilgen,
S. (2023), Stress change calculations provide clues to aftershocks in 2023 Türkiye
earthquakes, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.295 (18,226 unique pageviews)
Stein, R.S., Toda, S., Özbakir, A. D., Sevilgen, V., Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Lotto, G., Sevilgen, S.
(2023), Interactions, stress changes, mysteries, and partial forecasts of the 2023
Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquakes, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.299 (8,548
unique pageviews)
Toda, S., R.S. Stein (2022), Central shutdown and surrounding activation of aftershocks from
megathrust earthquake stress transfer, Nature Geoscience 15, 494–500.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00954-x (10 citations)
Güvercin, S. E., A. Ö. Konca, A. D. Özbakır, S. Ergintav, H. Karabulut (2021), New focal
mechanisms reveal fragmentation and active subduction of the Antalya slab in the Eastern
Mediterranean, Tectonophysics, 805,228792, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2021.228792. (8
citations)
Stein, R.S., Toda, S., 2021, Stress analysis shows slight increase in seismic hazard near
Zagreb, Temblor, http://doi.org/10.32858/temblor.149 (46,500 unique pageviews)
Castro, R. R., D. D. Carciumaru, M. Collin, W. Vetel, H. Gonzalez-Huizar, A. Mendoza, A.
Pérez-Vertti (2021), Seismicity in the Gulf of California, Mexico, in the period 1901–2018, J.
South Amer. Earth Sci., 106, 103087, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2020.103087 (11
citations).
Toda, S. and R.S. Stein, (2020), Long- and short-term stress interaction of the 2019 Ridgecrest
sequence and Coulomb-based earthquake forecasts, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 110, 1765-
1780, doi: 10.1785/0120200169 (44 citations).
Özbakır, A.D., R. Govers, A. Fichtner (2020), The Kefalonia Transform Fault: A STEP fault in
the making, Tectonophysics, 787, 228471, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2020.228471. (13
citations)
Lotto, G.C., Jeppson, T.N. and E. M. Dunham (2019), Fully Coupled Simulations of Megathrust
Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Japan Trench, Nankai Trough, and Cascadia Subduction
Zone, Pure Appl. Geophys. 176, 4009–4041, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1990-y
(45 citations)
Karabulut, H. et al. including A.D. Özbakir (2019), A new crustal model of the Anatolia–Aegean
domain: evidence for the dominant role of isostasy in the support of the Anatolian
plateau, Geophys. J. Int., 218, 57–73, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggz147 (35 citations)
Toda, S. and R.S. Stein (2018), What controls the duration of aftershocks, and why it matters for
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 108, 1414-1426,
doi:10.1785/0120170270 (21 citations)
Lotto, G. C., E. M. Dunham, T. N. Jeppson, H. J. Tobin (2017), The effect of compliant prisms on
subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis, Earth Planet. Sci. Letts., 458, 213-222,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2016.10.050 (43 citations)
Lotto, G.C., Nava, G., and E. M. Dunham (2017). Should tsunami simulations include a nonzero
initial horizontal velocity?. Earth Planets Space, 69, 117, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-017-
0701-8 (30 citations)
Özbakir, A. D., R. Govers, and R. Wortel (2017) Active faults in the Anatolian-Aegean plate
boundary region with Nubia, Turkish J. Earth Sciences, 26, https://doi.org/10.3906/yer-1603-4
Available at: https://journals.tubitak.gov.tr/earth/vol26/iss1/2 (24 citations)
Bird, P., D.D. Jackson, Y.Y. Kagan, C. Kreemer, and R.S. Stein (2015). GEAR1: A global
earthquake activity rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed
seismicity, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 105, 2538–2554 (76 citations).
Lotto, G.C., and E. M. Dunham (2015), High-order finite difference modeling of tsunami
generation in a compressible ocean from offshore earthquakes. Comput. Geosci., 19,
327–340, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-015-9472-0 (32 citations)
Highly cited publications
King, G.C.P., R.S. Stein, and J. Lin, Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes,
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 84, 935-953, 1994 (2817 citations)
Stein, R.S., The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature, 402, 605-609, 1999
(1839 citations)
Stein, R.S., A.A. Barka, and J.H. Dieterich, Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since
1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys. J. Int., 128, 594-604, 1996 (1494 citations)
Lin, J., and R.S. Stein, Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes, and stress
interaction between the southern San Andreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults, J.
Geophys. Res., 109, doi: 10.1029/2003JB002607, 2004 (1019 citations)
Toda, S., R.S. Stein, K. Richards-Dinger and S. Bozkurt, Forecasting the evolution of seismicity
in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer, J. Geophys. Res.,
doi:10.1029/2004JB003415, 2005 (889 citations)
Toda, S., R.S. Stein, P.A. Reasenberg, J.H. Dieterich, and A. Yoshida, Stress transferred by the
1995 Mw=6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities,
J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24,543-24,565, 1998 (795 citations)
Stein, R.S., King, G.C.P., and Lin, J., 1992, Change in failure stress on the southern San
Andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude=7.4 Landers earthquake, Science, 258,
1328-1332 (743 citations)
Parsons, T., S. Toda, R.S. Stein, A. Barka, J.H. Dieterich, Heightened odds of large earthquakes
near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation, Science, 228, 661-665, 2000 (667
citations)
Stein, R.S., G.C.P. King, and J. Lin, Stress Triggering of the 1994 M=6.7 Northridge, California,
Earthquake by its Predecessors, Science, 265, 1432-1435, 1994 (465 citations)
King, G.C.P., Stein, R.S., and Rundle, J.B., 1988, The growth of geological structures by
repeated earthquakes, 1: Conceptual framework: J. Geophys. Res., 93, 13307-13318
(350 citations)
Toda, S., R.S. Stein and T. Sagiya, Evidence from the 2000 Izu Islands swarm that seismicity is
governed by stressing rate, Nature, 419, 58-61, 2002 (370 citations)
Bawden, G.W., W. Thatcher, R.S. Stein, K. Hudnut, and G. Peltzer, Tectonic contraction across
Los Angeles after removal of groundwater pumping effects, Nature, 412, pp. 812-815, 2001
(371 citations)
Stein, R.S., and Lisowski, M., 1983, The 1979 Homestead Valley earthquake sequence,
California: Control of aftershocks and postseismic deformation: J. Geophys. Res., 88, 6477-
6490 (354 citations)
Toda, S, J. Lin, M. Meghraoui, and R.S. Stein, 12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China,
earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault
systems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17305, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034903, 2008 (298 citations)
Stein, R.S., King, G.C.P., and Rundle, J.B., 1988, The growth of geological structures by
repeated earthquakes, 2: Field examples of continental dip-slip faults: J. Geophys. Res., 93,
13319-13331 (264 citations)
Toda, S., R.S. Stein, V. Sevilgen, J. Lin, Coulomb 3.3, graphic-rich deformation and stress
change software, application and 40 p. User Guide, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Rep. 2011-
1060, 2011 (332 citations)
Stein, R.S., and King, G.C.P., 1984, Seismic potential revealed by surface folding: The 1983
Coalinga, California, earthquake: Science, 224, 869-872 (268 citations)
Stein, R.S., and Yeats, R.S., 1989, Hidden earthquakes: Scientific American, 260 (6), 48-59
(238 citations)
Parsons, T., R.S. Stein, R.W. Simpson, and P.A. Reasenberg, Stress sensitivity of fault
seismicity: a comparison between limited-offset thrust and major strike-slip faults, J. Geophys.
Res., 104, 20,183-20,202, 1999 (268 citations)
Toda, S., and R.S. Stein, Response of the San Andreas fault to the 1983 Coalinga-Nuñez
Earthquakes: An application of interaction-based probabilities for Parkfield, J. Geophys. Res.,
107, 10.1029/2001JB000172, 2002 (220 citations)
Stein, R.S., and Barrientos, S.E., 1985, Planar high-angle faulting in the Basin and Range:
Geodetic analysis of the 1983 Borah Peak, Idaho, earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 11355-
11366 (209 citations)
Stein, R.S., Earthquake conversations, Scientific American, v. 288 (1), pp. 72-79, January 2003
(219 citations)
Toda, S., R.S. Stein, Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A
demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer, J. Geophys. Res., 108, doi:
10.1029/2003JB002527, 2003 (180 citations)
Nostro, C., R.S. Stein, M. Cocco, and M.E. Belardinelli, Two-way coupling between Vesuvius
eruptions and southern Apennine earthquakes (Italy) by elastic stress transfer, J. Geophys.
Res., 103, 24,487-24,504, 1998 (194 citations)
Pollitz, F.F., R.S. Stein, V. Sevilgen, R. Bürgmann, 2012, The 11 April 2012 M=8.6 East Indian
Ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide, Nature, doi: 10.1038/nature11504
(174 citations)
Toda, S., R.S. Stein, and J. Lin, Widespread seismicity excitation throughout central Japan
following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake, and its interpretation in terms of Coulomb stress
transfer, Geophys. Res. Letts., 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL047834, 2011 (173 citations)
Stein, R.S., and Ekström, G., 1992, Seismicity and geometry of a 110-km-long blind thrust fault,
2, Synthesis of the 1982-1985 California earthquake sequence, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4865-
4883 (163 citations)
Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Velasco, A. A., Peng, Z., and Castro, R. R. (2012), Remote triggered
seismicity caused by the 2011, M9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39,
L10302, doi:10.1029/2012GL051015. (113 citations)
Chao, K., Z. Peng, H. Gonzalez‐Huizar, C. Aiken, B. Enescu, H. Kao, A. A. Velasco, K.
Obara, T. Matsuzawa (2013), A Global Search for Triggered Tremor Following the 2011 M w 9.0
Tohoku Earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 103, 1551–1571.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120171 (90 citations)
Gonzalez-Huizar, H., and Velasco, A. A. (2011), Dynamic triggering: Stress modeling and a
case study, J. Geophys. Res., 116, B02304, doi:10.1029/2009JB007000. (64 citations)
Sevilgen, V., R. S. Stein, and F. F. Pollitz (2012), Stress imparted by the great 2004 Sumatra
earthquake shut down transforms and activated rifts up to 400 km away in the Andaman
Sea, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 109, 15152-15156, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.120879910 (35
citations)
Peng, Z., H. Gonzalez‐Huizar, K. Chao, C. Aiken, B. Moreno, G. Armstrong (2013), Tectonic
tremor beneath Cuba triggered by the M w 8.8 Maule and M w 9.0 Tohoku‐Oki
earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 103, 595–600, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120253
(31 citations)
